3rd Annual State Of Economy

Zac Ruiz [0:00] All righty. So, what's going on if we haven't met? My name's Zachary Ruiz, and I... I write the Ruiz Report. So we've been doing this. This is volume 57. We've been doing this a while. Look at that. But today, I forgot about that. We have a special report. We're not gonna do, sorry, I forgot about that. We're not gonna do the normal thing. If you want to read the report, you can go to the website at the top, you hit latest report, you pick your favorite county, and that's that. But today, we're going to talk about what has happened since Hurricane Helene. How has that affected the market specifically to the exact numbers? So, quick outline.

I'm gonna tell you a little bit about the data and where it comes from. We're gonna talk about the outcomes for what I'm calling the Helene homes, and that's all the homes that were either active or under contract the day before Helene. What's their fate? What have they done? Then we're gonna talk about what I'm calling net inventory. So what has happened since Helene? We'll break that down into new listings and new pendings, which is supply and demand. I love talking about supply and demand. So first, let's talk about the data. The data comes from Canopy MLS, and it's gonna include seven counties, and it just so happens they align pretty well with where Hurricane Helene hit.

So we've got Bunkum, Haywood, Henderson, they kind of make up the bulk of the data, as we'll see. Madison, McDowell, Rutherford, and Transylvania. So all the grass moving forward are from those seven counties, and the data is for single family homes. So it doesn't include lots. Doesn't include commercial, right? So, done. So now let's talk about the outcome for the Helene homes. So this is a pygraph. This is what it looked like before. So, as we'll see here, the yellow, nice. The yellow is homes that were active. They were not under contract yet. They were looking for a buyer, and the Teal, we'll call it, were those homes that were under contract.

So we can see just shy of 4,000 homes in total, and about 30% of those were under contract the day before the storm. So these are now our Helene homes. Today, today, so if you go to the website, you'll see all of these graphs update every night, so it's live data. As of this morning, we've got our stats up here. break them down, but this is what our pie graph looks like, all right? So, green means they've closed. That's good. Teal again, under contract. Good. Active, less good, but also still standing. And then we have these. So let's go through it. So the good, 40% of the homes are still active. And like I said, I'd call that good, given how they could be destroyed at this point. Right?

So it's very real. About 16% are under contract today, and are currently under contract, and 25%, basically, have already closed. I think this is a very, very positive sign. This is a resilient market. All right? The less good, 5.1%, and let's put some numbers to this, 200 of those homes. Remember, of the Helene homes that were available. 200 of them are in limbo right now. They're in what we call temporarily off the market. They may come back, many of them have. But today, there are still 200. Then we've got the bad. So we can't draw a straight line. Maybe there's a straighter line, depending on when it was withdrawn, but 346 or about 9% of the homes have since withdrawn.

Can't say for sure that that was because of the storm, but that's a lot, because basically, homes don't really withdraw in this area. So, you know, there's a pretty good correlation and causation thing there. About 6% or 225 have allowed their contract to expire. They were just like, You know what? Not the market for me. So that's the bad. So, again, looking at the graph, what I want to call out is, so we're going to count the blue as maybes, right? But look, the overwhelming majority of this pie graph has some version of a happy ending right now. I think that speaks directly to the resilience of this market. It could have gone another way, and this is the way that it is going. Right?

So, look, only 14.5%, so 571 of the Helene homes are in the bad category. That is a great outcome, all things considered, right? So, if you want to know more, this is actually a super, super in depth article, it talks about what happened to the homes that were under contract. What's the value of the homes that were taken off? It's really, really in depth. I encourage you to read part one, but we're gonna go and talk about part two now. So net inventory. That was a lot of words, right? So let's turn it into a formula. Basically, what is in that inventory? If you take the new listing, since Helene?

You subtract those homes that have been withdrawn from the Helene homes, then you get what I'm calling net inventory. I also like to call it the market replenishment rate, 'cause that's really what's happening, right? How quickly are we replenishing the listings that are taken off? I was very surprised. I was very surprised when I got this number. So here's our graph. At the bottom there, it's the homes that were withdrawn daily. This is every single day. The top are the homes that were added on. So this is new listings, you'll see at the bottom left there, September 27th. That is the day Helene hit, going forward, and the green line is that net inventory, right?

You'll notice something about the green line. Does anyone see anything peculiar about the green line? Not only trending up. It never dips below zero. Never. That's a huge sign of resilience. The storm was very, very localized, and the economy in the market is so strong, and resilient is the word I'm gonna keep using, that we bounce back's a fun word. But we replenished the inventory starting day one. I think that's very, very impressive. So before we continue, this rhymes, it's kind of funny. Seasonality is coming into play, but we won't be covered here today.

So you're going to see that we're kind of dipping, but we're trending down this time of year anyways when it comes to listings impending. So keep that in mind. And keep in mind that the worst storm in North Carolina's history is, we're right on the tales of that. So let's talk about new listings. Where does that knit inventory number come from? Or supply, right? So going daily, here's what we see. I included a month before Helene, just to kind of give you some seasonality. Show you what the market looked like. The red line is Helene, and then we have to the right. What we can see is that there nothing really happened in the days following. And if you live here you know why.

But not nothing, like, completely, and I can't prove this, but I'm pretty sure it's 'cause people just had it queued up in the MLS, and so automations did what they're gonna do. The coming soons came, but obviously, if you had no Internet, no water and power, nothing was really gonna happen there, right? But that's why we have some little numbers there. Fun fact, brokers really like to list on Friday. That's what these spikes are. I thought that was kind of fun, right? So every Friday, they're like, Hey, it's time to list. I think I might look into that. Is that smart? We'll find out. Next, we're gonna go to cumulative, right? So daily, you see all sorts of spikes.

The cumulative smooths it out. Right? And what we're gonna look at is the slope of the line. And I know we all remember for math, but we're gonna talk about it real quick. The slope is the rate of change. Flat, right, means nothing's changing, and then depending on how up into the right it is, it's how quickly it's changing. Right? So we have our month going in, and it looks like this. Then we have flatness following Helene. And then as you can see, to me, those shapes, they look like a very strong market that is bouncing back. So let's kind of break it up. If you go online, all these graphs are interactive. You can cancel different counties and just focus on them specifically.

But so, that's what this line looks like. So I'm gonna break it up. It's not by month, it just how I ended up breaking it up. So before Helene, a month, we had 1,600 and 8, new listings added to the market in the seven counties. Until November 1st, we had 898 homes, and then we had almost 1,100. This is a very positive upward trend. Seasonally, this is a slower time of the year anyways. So the fact that we're keeping up with the market. Got to take that as a positive. Got to take that as a positive. It's pretty good. Right? Pre good. All right, so now let's talk about new pendings, demand, right?

Because if you had a lot of inventory, no one bought it, ah, it's not really that strong of a market, is it? Right? But as we can see here, not the case. People are buying these homes. Right? So same idea, daily, month ahead, right? So we had a lot happening, and then nothing happened, and now we're bouncing back. Unfortunately, there is no fun, like everyone buys a home on Friday. But what we can see is it's up until the right, until it starts tapering off, and that's what I was talking about, seasonally, things slow down anyways. But same trick, cumulative. again, we're looking at the slope. Look, steep, flat, steep. The markets, the markets returning.

I think this is very, very, very, very, very promising. Same trick, again. 1,209. Big drop, 407. Does anyone want to guess what the next number is? Anyone want to just...

Unknown [8:56] 300?

Zac Ruiz [8:58] We're gonna go with A37. Double, double the homes win under contract across the seven counties. That's a super strong. That's a super strong sign. It's really good, all right? It's really good. Again, all things considered, but still. So, the Reeves report came out today, actually, it comes out on the 3rd of every month, this is for Buncomb County. The top number is month over month, and the bottom number is year over year. So month over month, under contract homes in Buncomb County, 83% increase. And with the worst storm in North Carolina's history, we're only down 5% year over year. Right? So now, new listings were up 65% month over month, and we're up 11% year over year.

These are very promising numbers. These are very promising numbers. All right? Part two, much more in depth, really, really encourage you guys to give it a read. You just go to the website, go to blog at the top, and you see Hurricane Helene, part one, part two, part three, we're gonna weigh a little bit. Part three is gonna talk about what happened over time. What was the list of sale ratio? What were the price decreases, if there were any, when there are? What was the days on market? What did that look like, right? So, Rusport.com. Check out the blog. So now we're gonna give you 10 minutes, and everyone's gonna come back super respectfully and quick, so we can have our panel discussion.

All right? So here is the table question. Do you think that the local economy will fare as well as the housing economy has? Do you think the area, the economy of the area, the state of our economy that we're gonna talk about tonight? Do you think it's gonna bounce back as strongly, or it's be as resilient as the housing market?

Speaker 2 [10:30] What's going on, everyone? Zach here to close it up before you sign off for the day? If you liked the data driven portion of today's meetup, then I'd love to take a moment to tell you about the Ruys report and REMC.co. If you're a real estate professional, then you know that you should become the local economist of choice, but you're probably unsure of how to learn the skills required. That's where the Ruiz Report comes in. We offer customized marker reports to promote your business, training videos so you learn how to interpret the market data, and monthly quizzes to keep you sharp. Learn more at Razeport.com and sign up for a free account to watch all of our training videos at no cost.

If you're more interested in the live data and some data and analytics dashboards, then I highly suggest you check out ramc.co. REMC.co is the 1st of its kind data and analytics dashboards for the real estate industry. Now you have to be an active participating member of the MLS in order to sign up, but it is unparalleled data on every market participant, whether that's an office, a listing, or one of the realtors. Again, you can find out more about REMC.co at REMC.co. As always, thanks for listening, and we hope to see you at one of our next meetups.

If you can't make it and you still want to be part of the movers and shakers, then sign up for a free account at AVLmeetup.com and get yourself into our member directory. Thanks again. See you next month.

Speaker 1 [0:00] All right, well, let's go ahead and get started. You know, we were just talking, it was the 1st time we have panelists, or a full panel that everybody's a repeat panelist. So thank you guys for coming back. Thank you all for coming back. Everybody's returning, so appreciate it. For those of you who maybe didn't see you guys on one of the first panels, Start with you, Susan, but if you could just give a quick introduction, maybe what panel you were on last time, if you remember. And then, yeah, we'll just go down the line.

Susan Aplin [0:29] I do, you put me on spot. So, I'm Susan Applin, great to be back. Thank you. I'm the former CEO of Curate and all the Katie Button restaurants and lifestyle brands. I just recently retired. Red of applause, please. That's an awesome life moment. There you go. Thank you. Thank you. And the panel that I was on was talking about operations, the wonderful world of operations.

Mike Figura [0:58] Mike Figuera, owner of Mosaic Realty, and the panel that I was on was real estate focused, and we're talking about the real estate market.

Christopher Larsen [1:07] Power of local, the local pages.

Mike Figura [1:11] Yes, right. Thank you.

Christopher Larsen [1:12] Mike's actually our oldest friend in Asheville. Little, little, little fun fact there. Yeah, I met Mike before we moved here, as a matter of fact, so, um, yeah, so Chris Larson, I was on this, I think I was on this panel, more or less. It was a little different, but two years ago, kind of state of the economy. I forget what the title was, but... It's been the state of... Yeah, catalogs our economy. There we go.

Speaker 1 [1:37] But yeah, we'll go we'll start with you, Chris, and just kind of go back and forth. If you can, just, you know, paint us a picture of the 1st 72 hours, post Helene, what happened? What did you do? you know, kind of what was the response where were you? I know it can go long, so trying to, well, try not to make it too long of an answer, but yeah.

Christopher Larsen [1:57] I'd be concise. So, Helene was the last time I shaved. So... So beard or no beard? So, can I take a pole? Can I do that? So, yeah. No, but seriously, it's weird. Like, people compliment me when I have the beard, but they don't compliment me without the beard. So I feel like people say, Hey, I really like you when you cover half your face up, so maybe we should go with the mass mandates again, right? Um, yeah, so, uh, my wife and I, actually, were on an anniversary trip to Cancun, and we flew, our flight was delayed because Helene was in the way, so we flew around it. So we were in Cancun. My in laws were here. We live in Kenilworth, so not too far from here, up on the mountain.

So, I'm watching the storm online, effectively, and who's seen the movie The Perfect Storm? Yeah, it was like that, if you were watching the radar, it was crazy, 'cause we had the depression come in, and I just watched that amount, and I was like, this is really bad. And I just felt like that meteorologist when I was watching the movie The Perfect Storm. So we were talking to our in laws, they lost power. We saw our security cameras go out. We flew back that Sunday to Charlotte. And my in laws were able to make it out finally. They ran out of gas, so they didn't listen to me, they didn't get water. They didn't get gas in their car. I was a little upset with that.

So they left, they ran out of gas and had to go back home, and then my 12 year old son had to tell my mother in law where the gas station was to do that. So all these, like, we all have these stories, right? So, our director of operations. lives in Cane Creek, and he texted me, and fortunately, I just got the new iPhone right before that. So I was able to get the satellite texts. And they were stranded because the bridge washed out. So Monday morning, we got up, we got gas, he was powering his community, and getting water with his well water, but they were run out of gas. So we loaded up gas cans, gas. It took seven hours to get from Charlotte back up to here. delivered gas.

We checked out our property, which fortunately was okay. We were very fortunate with respect to that. And that actually led to, which we'll talk to, more our relief efforts, which we're still continuing today and supplying fuel. But it's amazingly, in those early days, getting fuel to communities was an issue, and it still remains an issue today.

Mike Figura [4:39] Thank you, Chris. Mike? Um, I was, uh, I'd actually flown out the day before Helene hit or the day, Helene was coming in. I'm surprised we didn't see each other in the airport. I flew to Michigan to do college tours with my son, and I saw it all happening. Um, and I think it was easier to communicate out of Asheville than it was to communicate with between people in Asheville. And I saw, I was seeing everything that was happening, so I just floated with messages, people asking me, what's going on, and I was able to relay the information. to them, and it was just, it was pretty terrible, watching it from afar.

Being in bars, watching sports on one channel and watching my community to get destroyed on another channel. It was terrible. So, couldn't wait to get home. And when I got home, everybody that I knew was leaving. But it felt good to be here, and to plug in on the ground and help out.

Susan Aplin [5:45] I am going to back up and do day minus one, because I think that was really important. None of the forecast, as you all know, predicted the unprecedented event that we went through, but I was CEO at Kirote at the time, and all of our other companies, and we had weddings, rehearsal dinners, lots of things going on, and we made the decision right away. to start canceling, and to get these people not to come to town. And so that was the first thing day minus one. was to steer people in a different direction. Day of the storm, no communications, very interrupted. The very first thing that happened was Katie and Felix made their way to my house.

This was the only way the three of us could communicate at this point. Typed a message to all employees. We had 160 employees, and we drove around for about an hour, looking for one bar to get one message out to all of our employees. Do not come in. Call your manager, call HR, use whatever technology you can, communications to get to us, to let you know if you're alive. So, first 72 hours for me was focused on employee safety. Are you alive? Is your family alive? Do you need anything? The second thing was business assessment. So, how are our buildings doing? What are operations? What's the state of everything happening? What's the state of our inventory?

So we have multiple restaurants, as you know, we also have a warehouse, and that warehouse was without power for about 65 days. It was one of the last properties to actually get power. Yeah, to get power. So we had massive inventory in that facility that had to be relocated. And I cannot say, um, enough to people like our partners, like Highland Brewery, who allowed us to truck our meat and other materials out to their refrigeration to save that inventory for us. So, um, day three, I was on the phone with World Central Kitchen and converted our operations and Curretay Restaurant into a facility where we started making meals for our employees, as well as the community.

And, you know, it was one of the best decisions. We would have only made that decision, but it was one of the best decisions because it gave us all purpose in the middle of a really crazy, um, and upsetting situation that we were all living through. But we made, in the end, about 26,000 meals, that were flown all over to people in need for meals, and I can't say enough about the team. So...

Unknown [8:39] Thank you.

Speaker 1 [8:41] So kind of, just to piggyback off that last sentiment that we've all kind of shared before we go to the next question. So, later on in the article, like, it's all data driven. It's graphs, like, that's what I do all the time, right? But I was basically, like, there's no metric, but basically, if there was a metric of, like, Hey, the people here are super cool, and we'll show up unannounced with aid in the time of need, like, it's real people that live here, we've got that in droves. And so, I think that's probably the coolest thing that we won't hit, necessarily. Oh, I guess we are, right? Talking about the state of the economy, but the state of the economy is the people.

The people that are awesome. So I just want to acknowledge that part. Well, on that note, we can start with you, you know, Chris would love for you to kind of deep dive a little bit, you know, with what you've started with the emergency network, but is, you know, where is the A?

It feels like there's been a very big community effort, and then other things are working and some things aren't working and just maybe just talk about your experience on what aid has looked like or felt like, and obviously, you guys did a lot of work with the central kitchen, but, you know, just if you want to expand on the aid conversation, I know personally it's not been an awesome experience to get aid for, you know, some of the issues that we've been working through on our end, but curious to, you know, hear what you guys have to say. You can whoever wants to start.

Susan Aplin [9:59] From hospitality perspective, I would say that the overall aid situation has not been meaningful. There have been a lot of small grants, and some SBA loans for businesses, but I would say this is probably the number one issue right now, facing our community, that will have a long tail, I believe, into real estate, into other sectors. If we're not able to get grants, federal and state money, to small businesses and to hospitality, there are many restaurants and businesses that won't survive. So, I know there are groups of people working on this now, but I would say, overall, the aid has not been material enough to really make a difference.

Mike Figura [10:44] Thank you, Mike. Um, I think that we weren't prepared for this on any level. Um, so the aid wasn't really there. Like, when, um, Milton came through Tampa, they had, I mean, Florida knows how to handle a hurricane. They had the Tampa Bay rays stadium filled with a thousand cots. Unfortunately, the roof flew off of that, but, like, they were ready for this, and we were just caught completely off guard. So, there was no central place. Like, as a realtor, we were, you know, the real estate association of realtors was trying to find elected officials to say we were experts in housing. How can we connect people who lost their house with housing resources? Nobody had an answer.

And it was Facebook and social media, and people reaching out to other people to really connect dots and other, you know, people saying, We've got Airbnbs that are not rented. Some a family can go stay here. We've got an RV that is, somebody can use. Fortunately, the weather was really good after Helene. And so, um, I think now there's still a lot of families that are living in FEMA housing, um, and in shelters, that are having a hard time getting placed. Hopefully, that will resolve, but, um, that we weren't prepared for it, from an aid standpoint.

Christopher Larsen [12:19] No, I'll second both of your comments. And I think, you know, to justify it, I think what was the statistic? We had three 1,000 year storms in a row. So I think, first off, as a society, like, we don't have the data set that we thought we do. So we just don't know what we don't know. And that's why we're not prepared, right? We're also not prepared with the topography, and, you know, how spread out we are here in Western North Carolina in this geography, versus, like, Florida, which is flat. So, you know, you don't have the devastation that you do concentrated around the river beds or the floodplains, but also, it's a lot easier to move.

If you have flat ground, you can just drive around something, well, if there's one way in and out, you can't just drive around the mountain, right? Um, and so that's, uh, that's part of it also. Also, those same issues, I think we're a challenge from a federal and state perspective, because you say, oh, well, this organization is coming in to help out, but if it takes a week to get there, get set up, figure out where aid needs to be, well, that's already too long for people that need medication, baby formula, these things. And then the needs also lack this, they lag the supply. I'm sorry, the supply lags, the need. So, you know, my friend, or director of operation said, hey, we need fuel.

He didn't see the National Guard, so we got there Monday. He didn't see the National Guard until Thursday. It's not the National Guard's fault, but if they show up on Thursday, they don't have what he needs, they're gonna ask him what he needs at that time. So that's part of the issue. The supply chains don't work here. Fuel, if you don't have a road, you can't, you know, you can't deliver fuel if you don't have a fuel station because it was washed away. You can't distribute fuel.

So that's one of the big things, you know, we have ad hoc fuel delivery network that we set up with literally farmers with fuel tanks on the back, and we got started by just, you know, Venmoing and zelling money, um, to people, and then you get all your accounts shut down, because people think you're a terrorist or a drug dealer according to federal laws, right? So I can't use any of my accounts, which means I can't transfer money. And, you know, has anybody set up a nonprofit and try to do it within 20? How long did it take you? To get a bank account, the paperwork, all the approvals? Four months. There you go. Four months. Right? Yeah, yeah, and that's fast.

So it's really hard if you're trying to do that. And then you have, like, media, Stern shit up. So, you know, you have an interview with somebody that says they want to help out, and next thing you know, you're, you know, they're piecing things together to say, Oh, there's a conspiracy theory that somebody in your organization that happens to be a volunteer that you've never met or even know their name made a comment to. So there's a lot of different factors out there. And then we had the, you know, obviously, being in the political season, that made it very challenging as well.

So I think the bottom line is, though, going back to what you said, Zach, is that the community here is amazing, and, you know, people, ultimately, are the ones that they're gonna help, and it's been just amazing. to watch, you know, the community come together and do these things. And ultimately, the federal and state organizations are gonna be the ones that have to fill these gaps, because you can't prepare for something that we've never seen as a society.

Speaker 1 [16:04] I think it's probably a good segue to ride the positive wave, but the people here are awesome. Just, I guess, Susan will start with you and come back. What do you see happening in 2025? What do you think next year's gonna look like? You have a very interesting perspective, seeing as you were, you know, in the heart of the hospitality industry, and a tremendous amount of our economy, and all the ancillary services depend on hospitality?

Susan Aplin [16:26] Yeah, I mean, I would start with, right now, hospitality is in survival mode, complete survival mode. And it's great to see so many restaurants reopened, even at partial capacity. Hospitality is about 20% of Buncombs, GDP. So we have a diversified economy, which is good. But there is a large sector here that is comprised of hospitality. And then you've got retail on top of that. So there are about 29,000 workers, pre storm, in the hospitality sector. And I think in November, we had about 12,000 unemployment claims filed.

Speaker 1 [17:08] I don't know if you saw, but we went from bunk and went from the lowest to the highest level of unemployment in North Carolina. If you don't mind me jumping. I don't want to stop the answer but the flow. So it's 20% of the GDP on it. How much of that would you say happens this time of year? In fall?

Susan Aplin [17:23] So, um, October is called Super Bowl, um, and it's followed by November, December, and most small businesses and most restaurants are running at a loss the first nine months, and they make up all of their money in that one quarter. That one quarter has to pay for everything, all the payroll, all the leases, everything. So without grant aid, state and federal aid to come in and help, we're really facing a dire situation in the community right now in the hospitality in the retail sector. And I'll just add one more thing. The TDA is projecting a net, 30%, 35%, decrease in tourism next year. So we're down 70% right now in Q4. It'll start 50% down.

They're projecting a Q1, and then trail down, and hopefully be able to catch back up in the fourth quarter of 2025. That's a long time for businesses to survive without revenue.

Speaker 1 [18:30] So I definitely don't want to paint a pretty picture, but I love making lemonade with lemons, right? So I think a lot of the projection of the people not coming and everything. I think the messaging, at least nationally and outside of here is maybe not the greatest, right? And if you drove here tonight, and you go to a restaurant for a while, they didn't have water, but they had bottled waters, right? How do you see us turning the corner, specifically in hospitality, you know, just to continue, and then we'll go down the line? I think it's a great place. The mountains are still here. Everything is still here, but we need to survive, and we need to support local in that. So how do you see 25?

Where's the silver lining in 2025 if you see one? Don't let me force an answer.

Susan Aplin [19:09] No, I think we've got a couple of secret weapons happening. It's not that no one's doing anything about it. Our new governor elect has established a bipartisan committee, advisory committee, for Western North Carolina recovery. And I believe, let's all be hopeful, that that's gonna generate some federal and state aid that will go into the hospitality sector and really help us retain the vibrancy that we're used to in this community, in that sector. And then I also think there is a huge responsibility sitting on the TDA and Explorer Asheville right now to get super creative on how to get people here for Q4, and then how to bring people back.

And we all have a responsibility to tell people, We are open for business. Come back. classic. Please post on your Facebook and in your social pages. We are open. Take photos of downtown so people can see that Asheville did not fly away with the hurricane. Right. Um, that restaurants are here, and, and people want to, people want to be at full capacity. And we still have the capability of making that happen if we could just get tourism back.

Speaker 1 [20:25] I think perfect to jump in Mike. Out of town buyers are a good chunk of buyers, or people moving here and bringing their jobs with them, right? How is that messaging happening on your end in real estate? What's the conversation? Like, are people wary, or are they saying, Oh, man, you guys, you know, you're weathering the storm pretty well. I still want to be there.

Mike Figura [20:47] Uh, it's all over the place. I think, um, people who are moving here, um, are afraid to take advantage of the situation. Some people are coming here with the full intent of taking advantage of the situation. And, um, there's other people who are like, Oh, maybe Asheville's on sale right now. Let me go, check it out and see what kind of deal I can get, but I really feel bad about offering lower than this house is worth, but then I don't want to offer, you know, I don't want to overpay for it either. So I think there's a lot of people who are kind of just, like, stuck trying to figure out, well, maybe I'll just wait and see what happens to prices.

And is that kind of backlog happens, things will drop. And then, once a bottom happens, it's gonna bounce back up. And I think that's probably what we're gonna see throughout everything. I've been a realtor for 20 years. And I went through 2008, when the financial crisis happened, and what happened was it was really bad for everybody, and a lot of people dropped out of the business, and then it stabilized. And for the people who were still in it, it became good much more quickly, even though it wasn't as much business as it was happening before, it was shared between fewer people, which I think is gonna be the case for restaurants and hospitality.

Like, it's so sad when restaurants close, and somebody loses their dream, or when a business closes, but that means there's less competition for the existing restaurants, and at some point, we're gonna stabilize in housing and hospitality. Rents are going down. I think they were projected to go down 10%. I've heard from some rental management companies, they're supposed to go down, maybe another 10 to 15%, as service industry workers leave, which is great for people who are looking to rent. And it's great for hospitality to say, Well, we need more people here, and we now rent is cheaper. Right.

So, you know, there's so many different ways, and, like, whether it's good or bad, depends on what you're looking at, and how your staying power is, I think the business is. This isn't the question that you ask, but I think that the people who are, like, moving here, um, are going to, are largely waiting to see what is happening.

Speaker 1 [23:12] Well, so in economics, there's this idea of creative destruction, right? Like, kind of forced on you, and what do you do? And I think this is a great inflection point for Asheville, not necessarily to wholesale reinvent itself, but there are a lot of... Hey, there are a lot of things moving us towards a new post only new normal. And so, Chris was the, I guess, we'll call you the resident economist with everything you do, kind of, for the first state of our economy, Chris invests nationwide and everything. So if you want to shed some light on what you think's happening in 25. Love to hear your thoughts. Whew.

Christopher Larsen [23:43] Um, so, yeah, I think we asked that question, right? You guys asked that question beforehand. And the short answer that we discussed at the table was no. We don't think the economy will bounce back as fast as the real estate market, unfortunately. But, no, I'm an optimist, too. I think, you know, yeah, there are, there, unfortunately, like, we just found out one of our favorite restaurants, Vivian, is closing, which is a shame. But we ate a kurate twice in one week, which we haven't eaten a kurate once in two years, because it was so busy. So, yeah, and we have got a couple Airbnbs, so we tell people, hey, it's a great time to come. Things aren't as busy.

Obviously, there's some, you know, Builtmore Village might not be as vibrant as it once was. Um, but, you know, my my view, Zach, if you look at it kind of nationally, or regionally, even, is that, you know, hey, if Asheville gets more expensive, well, maybe that's good for Candler, it's good for Brevard, and, you know, we sometimes forget that these little communities and these opportunities arise, because of the problems that come out of a place like Asheville. So I think we're gonna see opportunities, people will get to move here. It'll come back. I think the demand for a place like Asheville, if you wanted to move to Asheville, that desire is not going to go away.

The challenge is for the businesses will be, can they persist, you know, through that time. You know, and kind of bring it full circle. That's where we do need, we really do need state and national support, because when you can't plan for these things, you don't want everything, you know, it's not creative destruction. It's just destruction. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, and in general, I'm not a big fan because, you know, you're talking about creative destruction. You could say the Fed has, you know, tries to not allow that to occur. And maybe that's a good thing or bad thing, but, you know, in this case, I think it's essential for local and national government to come in and help retain this.

Otherwise, you can just lose an entire region wholeheart.

Speaker 1 [25:50] Our 1st state of the economy was very much a more libertarian bent. But this is this is where government... Yeah, this is where government has a rule, right? Like, this is...

Christopher Larsen [26:00] This is a fun transition. I don't pull any punches. No, it's great. wide open. Yeah.

Speaker 1 [26:06] Well, we'll go back to you, Susan, to, you know, obviously there's been a lot of change that's happening. Is there any change that you've noticed in your industry, you're just anecdotally that you would say is going to be permanent changed? Like the phrase I've been using is like, it's not like a new normal, but it's finding like a new rhythm. And because obviously the new normal is just kind of different, but are there any permanent changes that you're seeing, that you're aware of, or maybe that you're projecting moving forward from an economic standpoint?

Susan Aplin [26:33] Um, I'd like to see. I'm not sure we will fully see this, but more business resiliency. Um, obviously, you couldn't plan for what we just went through, but, um, you can also not be completely flat footed when this happens. And when these creative destruction situations happen, it gives you an opportunity to take a look at your whole portfolio, what you're doing, and reassess, reevaluate, and make adjustments, and I'd like to see an increase in overall business resiliency come out of this.

Speaker 1 [27:13] Do you mind maybe expanding on that, or giving a couple of examples of what you're thinking of when you mentioned that?

Susan Aplin [27:20] Yeah, I mean, I think, um, understanding market shifts and reflecting on the last 12 months, what's working, what's not working, looking at your business units, we all have business projects or business units that maybe aren't performing as well as we wanted to. Are there adjustments you can make? Can you completely take them off the table, um, and go in a different direction? I think that's one. Um, I think there are other areas just in terms of disaster recovery planning, um, communication planning. You know, I talked to a lot of restaurants. that didn't have a roster of their employees and their phone numbers day one.

And so while we were calling to make sure everybody was alive, there were some people scrambling, trying to get that data. And so just really thinking about, you know, what do I need to have in place, if something does happen again, so that I can take care of my people and my business. I would also just share a story, too, just about the insurance industry. And I'm not gonna go too long on this. It's been a complete disappointment. I think for many people here.

Um, and it's obviously an industry that needs to be looked out nationwide, um, and I think there are gonna be a lot of discussions in 2025 about this, and what happened in Western North Carolina, and I don't think we've heard the end of the story yet. on this one. But, um, I would say, if I had any advice is, um, don't negotiate your insurance policy without an attorney there going forward. Um, you know, there are very long documents, and there are just a whole lot of things that you don't pay attention to that really mattered when the storm hit, that affected a lot of people getting nothing in business recovery and insurance. So I would definitely say that as well.

Speaker 1 [29:20] Thank you, Mike. What was that? Permanent, uh, Eddie, uh, permanent changes, uh, that you're starting, or any changes that you're starting to see that you think are gonna be permanent, or any permanent changes you're thinking about?

Mike Figura [29:36] I don't know of permanent, it's, you know, it's hard to say that anything's permanent because people have such short memories. That's why we have more than one kid.

Unknown [29:48] That's true.

Mike Figura [29:50] Maybe it's good for human evolution and survival. But... But people have such short memories, and I think that's part of, like, you know, I mean, um, when people ask, well, is anybody ever gonna move to Asheville, because you guys just got rocked by a hurricane, and you were this climate haven, and now you're not anymore? And, you know, the first thing out of people's mouths, everybody's got such a short memory. So, and it's true. That's why Florida has people living there.

But what I would hope is that people have, who own businesses, and people who are self employed, realtors, really take to heart having, like, a six month to a year in cash, or highly liquid emergency fund, because these types of things are weatherable, if you are able to live off your savings, take stock of what's happened, make adjustments, and if you don't, then you're just kind of scrambling on your heels, going out of business, moving out of the area, it's hard to do.

But I think that's got to be part of business planning and expansion, if you own a business, or you're getting into a business, like make sure that that is, you're not spending your reserve fund, remodeling your kitchen, um, and planning on getting it right back, because you never know what's gonna happen.

Speaker 1 [31:20] Somewhere in Tennessee, Dave Ramsay is clapping right now. Um, but kind of kind of along the business resiliency, if we can specifically get into real estate, right? So I think one of the coolest, so, you know, obviously, we're very much in the real estate industry and community here. And realtors stepped up. Realtors are, like, this little hub that somehow know everybody 'cause that's their job. And so, they were there to help a great deal. Would you say that, much like, in a business' bones now, you're kind of like, Wow, I should really have a roster. Maybe I should have a rainy day fun and everything.

Would you recommend any permanent changes to the way realtors do business and kind of community building, right, that they're doing? Given this experience, watching what went well for some and maybe not as well for others.

Mike Figura [32:00] If realtors were not community focused and relationship focused, I think that they need to make that change permanent. And if they were, then I think that and served them well, and they should continue to do that. Yeah, if your realtor showed up with water. You're gonna remember your realtor college and ask how you're doing. Um, if your realtor was, um, helping connect resources in your community, um, and or helping connect you to ways that you could help. I had a lot of clients that I was connecting to, and they were saying, We're fine, what can we do to help? And I was able to direct them in the right direction. So, um, and then I also had people who were like, We need this, we need this.

And, you know, I work with a lot of builders, so I was able to, you know, ask my builder buddies, who are driving around in pickup trucks, not knowing what to do, and directing them to different places, which was nice. So, yeah, I think, and I'm not unique. Most realtors did that.

Speaker 1 [33:00] Yeah, Rodrigo's not gonna say it, but they were delivering water to all of their tenants that didn't have water with Vesa property management. Like, if you were taking care of your community, And back to the fact that that staying power helps that economy, and we want these people staying, that's great.

Christopher Larsen [33:14] Sir, does anybody else have the same song? So you said rock rock me like a hurricane? You said rock like a hurricane? I can't get out of my head now, said you said that. Didn't no else catch that? So there's a few lessons. One, um, you know, it's like the joke, right? The bear, chasing the two friends, the one friend stops to put his shoes on. He says, You're not gonna outrun the berries, like, I'm gonna outrun you. So you want to take, you don't have to be a prepper and have food in your basement for three years, have some water, have a generator, you know, have a radio. I grew up not too far from D.C.

and watched 9/11 and had a lot of friends up there, so, you know, a lot of these things, like, have a half a tank of gas in your car at all times. You know, these things can save your life. You know, these little things. Like you, like you all were saying, have, if you're an entrepreneur, six, 12, 2 years of an emergency fund can, you know, can be the equivalent of having, you know, a week or a month of food and water around. And then the other thing is, I try to tell, I've got two boys, almost both teenagers now. And, you know, we were doing a lot afterwards. And it sucks when you talk to your insurance company, and you're like, hey, I can't be at home.

I have no water, I have no power, I can't run my business, I can't do these things. So I got to rent. It's like, well, did your house get damaged? No, my house didn't get damaged. Okay, so you get nothing. It's interesting, right? So on one side you feel fortunate. But when you're standing and somebody else is knocked down, you help them out. And I really, really hope that we all remember that, because when you're going through this crazy polarized election season, and then all that stops, and everybody's helping each other out, I wish we could be like that all the time, and say, Hey, we're all really similar, you know?

We could be different, have different opinions, and have different things, but, you know, we're a community, right? Absolutely. And that's, you know, I think that's what makes Asheville special. And when I first moved here in the house that you sold us, the little state street. Remember that? Yeah, I remember that. Yeah, yeah. This person goes, hey, are you Chris? And I was like, yeah, what's wrong? And they're like, I'm just saying hi. But when you live in a condo three feet from somebody, and you never talk to them, never meet them, when you're in a big city, you know, you realize how special this area is, and that's why people move here.

So, hopefully, we don't take that for granted, and we realize how special it is.

Mike Figura [35:53] Glad you saw that, I make that. People move here because of the people who are here.

Christopher Larsen [35:56] Yeah, that's exactly right. And it is a special place. And I think that's one of the big reasons why the area fared so well afterwards, is because I think there's areas in this country. So I said, oh, my gosh, if I was still in LA, we'd all be dead, because, no, we wouldn't help each other, you know? Um, so that's, I think that's a really, really important thing to remember.

Speaker 1 [36:18] I was in LA before I moved here. And someone was like, Oh, they would do that in L.A. I was like, no one in L.A. has a chainsaw, that I can tell you, right? So. Well... Yeah. Well, so, we're gonna move to the lightning round, but if it wasn't for that, that was a mic drop moment. That was great. I love it. I love it. Yeah, I love ending on that positive note. So... Can I skip there's lightning around that? Well, it's fun. It ties in. The first question, Rodrigo, do you want to lead it off? All right, well, ties into what you were saying. What is the most unexpected item you've added to your emergency kit since Celine?

Christopher Larsen [36:49] Or were you good? Unexpected item. Uh, I got a Starlink. Ah. Yeah, yeah. Get one. Yeah, by the way, they're great. Like, they basically fronted us a whole palette of starlinks. Oh, wow. For our, yeah, for our nonprofit, and then said, Hey, pay us if you can. Well, they wanted the money, but still, yeah. Starling.

Unknown [37:11] Mike?

Mike Figura [37:12] Um, a pair of assless chaps for my chainsaw. Not really assless, James, but chaps for my chainsaws. I don't cut my leg off because there was... You don't get to bring that up much. You saw the opportunity to celebrate. You saw the opportunity and you took it. No, I don't know if y'all don't know where chaps are. They...

Unknown [37:34] No, you're good.

Mike Figura [37:34] Don't explain it. Chainsaw, chaps. They keep your, uh, chainsaw from cutting through the fibers will get caught up in the chainsaw and stop the blade. But not on your ass. But not on your ass, if you're not wearing them in your ass. They just go on the front. It's a good thing it was warm after Helene. It's good weather.

Susan Aplin [37:52] It's that kind of panel? It is. Yeah, it is now. Sorry, it's about time of night. It has been. We just were waiting for the lightning rounds, Susan. Um, mine's less exciting than your chaps. Mine is a Coleman lantern. Just no power, need a lot of light.

Speaker 1 [38:12] All right, so, Susan, we'll start with you and go back. Did you have a favorite source of information during the early stages of the storm?

Susan Aplin [38:21] Oh, yeah. Big shout out to the fire department. Um, it was Dr. Quinn, sort of little house on the prairie moment, no communication, and we would walk a mile and a half to the fire department, and they had this nice piece of paper, basically hammered to the fence, and you would write a question, and come back in a couple of hours, and someone would give you an official answer. The really cool thing about that, though. It brought the community together. When you show up to the fire department, there were always about 150 or 200 people there. Um, and then I would say after we got comms, um, the daily buncomb government briefings were our main source of information. So...

Mike Figura [39:19] The variety of politicians that were putting things out from both sides of the aisle, I thought, was great. Local and state representatives. Julie Mayfield, Chuck Edwards. It was, like, rare that I read both of their emails, but... I thought that they did an excellent job of putting out information. in a timely manner, and really synthesizing things. So.

Christopher Larsen [39:45] Um, yeah, you know, in a time where you're like, Oh, ex Facebook, well, Gen X, so, like, Facebook's kind of, like, that's not a thing anymore, right? Um, but what's wild is, uh, the real community, so for us, the churches were our base. And churches know where people live, they know who's missing, the who's not there. So that was critical for our organization as we located and then distributed aid and did that.

Unknown [40:12] Beautiful.

Speaker 1 [40:14] All right, so we're gonna, it's 7.15. We're gonna get you out of here at 7.30 sharp. So we are going to move over to Audience Q and A. We have a really cool cube that you just hold, and you speak into it, and we get to throw it at you. And then you get to throw it at the next person. So, whoever wants to be the brave soul, to lead off Q and A, please raise your head... Oh, there you go. It's gonna get, look alive.

Unknown [40:37] And... Yeah?

Speaker 5 [40:40] So, um, thank you guys, first of all, for coming and doing everything you've done. I am a recent transplant from Southern Oregon. I actually came here because I was getting away from forest fires. So I actually lived through my town being destroyed by a fire. moved here, moved to the Biltmore Village. You know, I used to know what happened. So, but what I'm asking, what I'm wondering is, because I watched the recovery there, there were some real institutional things that changed. And I'm wondering, from the three of you, what would you see as major institutional changes that could be an outcome from this?

so that we can start thinking not just for the next month, six months, but, like, five, 10 years from now, what would you want to see this community start doing?

Mike Figura [41:28] I would like to see better flood control on a level that we have not begun to talk about yet. In other places where they have rivers that flood regularly, and more predictably, like in monsoonal Asia, they have got whole areas that they intentionally flood to save other areas downstream. And I think it would be great, if we could say, Biltmore Village in the River Arts District, by flooding the JBL soccer fields and building up, you know, a 100 wall foot of water that we release more slowly over time, and just, so, I think, our damage was really localized, and, um, that's an opportunity to, to be able to not have that damage if we figure out how to solve that.

Christopher Larsen [42:21] That's a good point. I mean, we have dykes, we have cities all around the world. Like, we know how to solve this problem. So I think that's a great point. Um, I also think that, uh, from, yeah, from a structural from a governmental perspective. Some of the things we talked about earlier. Like, these are very easy solutions, if we disseminate information and share with people how to do this. Um, Again, uh, you know, I go back to Starlink versus, like, how do you how do you stay connected? You can say, oh, well, we're not going to have cell service. Well, actually, you can't have service, you can't have connectivity with certain things, but you just have to, again, to technology.

So we have so much technology, so much brain power in the world today. All these problems are solvable if we're able to share the information. We're so wealthy in this country. We can solve these problems. If we if we communicate properly. and allow the technology to move.

Susan Aplin [43:21] I think a broader, maybe more expanded preparedness plan on the part of the city. Um, what we saw going through this was, um, trying to move inventory around, and we had all of our partners wanting to donate goods and just showing up with truckloads of food and ingredients to give us, um, there wasn't anyone in the city who had a list of where can you back an 18 wheeler up, and unload and put stored goods, whatever those goods are, and there wasn't a of where's all the available refrigeration in the area. So, you know, we found that just from a food perspective, but you could also expand that to medicine. All kinds of things. So, really taking a look at the overall preparedness plan.

and expanding that.

Unknown [44:18] Good question. Another question.

Speaker 1 [44:23] All right. If you want to stand up, I'll toss. I am afraid of knocking all those drinks there. From here on out, you're responsible to toss it to the next person. Okay.

Speaker 5 [44:33] Um, so my question is, um, regarding ordinances, what the RVs and the tiny home, um, that has been given out to the community, is the city, county, different counties, changing their policies regarding what's allowed in the past. You had to be out of an RV during the winter for six months. And I want to know, if that's changing, how we are viewing housing and distribution of what's considered is housing, because right now, I think a lot of communities are out of ordinance with that. I'd like to know, have you got any inside information about that?

Speaker 1 [45:14] Just to protect the panelists, if you don't know, that's fine.

Mike Figura [45:18] I have not heard that they have been, um, quickly changing ordinances. I requested an ordinance change, that it's still getting bounced around staff, that people who had short term rentals that were grandfathered in, that the city temporarily halt that, so that they could rent longer term, and not lose their grandfather's status, which seemed like a pretty logical request until it got to politicians. And, um, and then they were like, Well, you know, we don't want people to take advantage of this. And, like, people need housing, just come on. So I don't think that I don't think it's happening quickly.

But I think that we should put pressure to change this, even if they're just temporary rule changes.

Speaker 1 [46:09] I can second that from just, anecdotal evidence in the Swannanoa area, it's been challenging to get clarity on what will be allowed, whether it's short term versus long term, and everything's like, oh, well, you can just apply, which, you know, doesn't really help from a speed component. It doesn't help, but the squeaky wheel gets the grease, right? So we have a room full of people that want change. We're not jellyfish. We can make it happen.

Speaker 5 [46:35] I have one other question. I kind of thought of Asheville. Western North Carolina, or North Carolina in general, but especially Western, we have the best water in the entire world. I'm organized with organized water. And we had probably the best permaculture, community, farming, all of that. I was wondering if we could turn ourselves, you know, with the PDA and having the best list, so we could turn out because of the community showing up and all these people coming to help. If we could turn this whole thing into the best resilient community gathering experience, so that like we start teaching workshops. on how to do this or whatever.

I wondered if anybody had that vision that we saw ourselves as like a model for the rest of the country of like, okay, this worked really well. Just didn't. Has anybody thought of that idea?

Christopher Larsen [47:38] I think so, we've, well, they held that closer. I just got excited. We've talked about how to take the fuel distribution network that we set up and replicate it in other places. And I think it goes to... I think it's a great idea. I think, you know, you take what we've done and say, okay, let's not forget this. Let's share this information and get it out there. And that is something that I think, you know, politicians could disseminate and say, Hey, here's a blueprint that we can use for somewhere else. Um, I'm not, I'm not specifically thought about it from, you know, water or tourism perspective and that sort of thing.

But I agree, like, when we moved here 16, 17 years ago, um, I looked at the water. I was like, this is fantastic, you know, never did I think that the water source is what would have created a lot of this destruction and done that. But no, I think our story can be one of resilience. And I think that's what's important is, we'd also don't want to forget that, and we didn't really... This was kind of woven in, but we didn't really cover it. Um, you know, I mentioned that the aid lags the need earlier, and we still have, we still have a need. We have a need for housing, we have a need for heat, we have a need for heating fuel. That needs gonna be there for four months.

So I think we can't forget that we're still in the middle of the crisis. right now. And I think a lot of people forget that. We've seen funding dry up and, you know, it's like, oh, you guys still need diapers? It's like, well, no, we need heating fuel, you know, 'cause people forget. It's like, people, because you guys probably experienced... We were seeing the supplies continue to come in after people were saying, stop, stop, stop. So I think we need to continue as a community to share what is needed, and then kind of catalog that information, and use it as a template.

Mike Figura [49:28] Do either of you guys want to chime in on that or that question? Cool. Well, I do think it's a balance between saying, Here's what we need, and also saying Asheville's open for business, come. And that's a real nuance, because, if we say, we're in the middle of a crisis still. Well, the region, the region, yeah. Yeah, you see what I'm saying? Like, that's where the PR marketing machine needs to really hone in, and hopefully we can speak with a consistent voice.

Susan Aplin [49:56] I completely agree with that. This is a tough needle to thread from a PR perspective. because we are still in the recovery, and we need to be able to talk about it, but we also need not to talk about it, so we can get people to talk here, so....

Mike Figura [50:11] Maybe the message is tourism as our recovery, come visit. Yeah.

Unknown [50:16] There you go.

Mike Figura [50:17] All right, next question.

Speaker 1 [50:20] Teach Amanda Fish, right? They're in the back.

Speaker 5 [50:26] Hi, hello. Um, from a developer, realtor, uh, point of view, what could you all, I'm not in this space, but I'm adjacent, I guess, but what do you think that are steps that you could take to attract different industries here so that we're not so heavily reliant on tourism in the future?

Mike Figura [50:52] We've always been a tourist economy. I mean, there are baseball teams called Asheville tourists. So I don't know if we can get around that. Um, I think maybe having a more, um, sustainable and equitable tourist economy is the answer so that people aren't living on the margins and on the edge so much that when something happens, they're knocked off. But, um, people move here 'cause of the mountains, and 'cause it's beautiful, and because of the rivers to play in, and, um, and because of all the fun places to eat, and things to do, and, um, We're a lot less of a tourist economy than we were 20 years ago. So, um, I think people being able to port their jobs places has helped with that.

Susan Aplin [51:43] Yeah, I mean, just to give a little bit of clarity on that, too, is that tourism, you've got hospitality, you've got retail, you've got those sort of sectors. Those are about 30 to 30 to 33% of the overall economy. The rest is made up of other sectors, healthcare manufacturing. And so I do think, you know, that we can continue to develop those, but the diversified economy we have here isn't talked about a lot. I think what we're seeing now is just the severe impact on the tourism that's happening.

Christopher Larsen [52:21] Yeah, I think, um, kind of, to your point, Mike, but also to counter it, you know, the same, the reason that, like, we moved here is the same reason that people come here to visit, and 20, 30 years ago, you couldn't necessarily bring your job here, you know, what was the joke? Bring a partner, like a romantic partner or spouse, and bring a job, if you want to move to Asheville. Right? Yeah. Yeah, that was that's what people said. So I think the message is that, hey, you can come to Asheville now, and if you can work from anywhere that a lot of people can now, especially since COVID, you get everything that Asheville has to offer.

You get all the outdoors, you still get all these great restaurants and this ability, and I think now more than ever, that's, you know, at least in the last 10 years, it's more accessible. now potentially. So I think that's what we really need to really need to push. And tourism, like, to your point, it's never gonna, that's always gonna be part of the reason, but it's gonna be the tip of the spear, and it's what's gonna continue to draw people here, because just like us, we came, met Mike, spend our first anniversary weekend here. The next year we moved here. So tourism will continue to draw people, almost like an advertisement.

Speaker 1 [53:38] All right, we're gonna try to sneak in one question here, if there is another one. Last question. Oh, good thing. Good throw. Hello.

My question, and I've heard this question posed from different friends of mine, thinking about, you know, they're at the age of buying their first home, and everything, but because of Helene, and I don't know if y'all were like me, but, you know, that Friday morning, I was Googling floodplain zones in Hendersonville, 'cause, you know, I live pretty close to one, trying to dial that in, and if I needed to run or not, but, uh, My question is, do you think that home's within a 500 year flood zone, which, you know, you can easily find out what that is online, do you think properties in those areas will become devalued over time, postaling, uh, and maybe on the other end of that, maybe areas that are in steeper slopes or more prone to landslides?

Do you think that we'll see a price adjustment in those areas and maybe, you know, the flip-flop for areas that are deemed, you know, out of those risk, risk areas in the future?

Christopher Larsen [54:53] We stop building on the coasts? Say that again. Do we stop building on the coast after a hurricane?

Speaker 1 [54:59] Uh... I think some people do. I would hope so.

Mike Figura [55:04] I think a lot of it's depending gonna depend on the insurance market. Yeah. Because we haven't stopped building on the coast. But insurance on the coast is a mess right now. And so, um, the insurance industry is terrible, um, but it also is kind of, you know, if it's working properly, it should be alerting people to what the risk is that they're taking. Right. And, um, I think, oh, our floodplain maps are wrong. I've heard it's gonna take maybe four years to update the floodplain maps. Four, four, four, four. Four years to update the floodplain maps, insurance is based on the floodplain maps. There's a lot of factors that go into this. Um, so, so, it depends.

Like, I don't think that people are gonna stop, people with a lot of money are not gonna stop building on steep slopes for the view. But I do think that people who are looking for affordable housing, and they're buying something in the floodplain, because it's cheaper, are gonna think twice about it, if their insurance properly reflects the risk. Gotcha.

Speaker 1 [56:21] And this might be a premature question for that. But do you think that building codes will change because of the ween here in the local area?

Mike Figura [56:29] Unfortunately, our building code is set by the state, and the state has been taken over by the State Home Builders Association, which is very anti regulation. So it's going in the opposite direction. Yeah, I've noticed that.

Christopher Larsen [56:46] It's a knife edge, right? Because if you take the regulation away and you allow the insurance market to work in a true free market, then insurance prices are gonna go way higher. That was kind of embedded in the question about coast, 'cause if you look at it from a commercial perspective, commercial prices are based on net operating income, and if you raise your insurance costs, you cut into the net operating income, and you lower the value of the property, and do that. But there's ways to do it, there's ways to have your cake and eat it, too. So my sons went to French Broad River Academy.

It's on the river, it's on the French broad, and the school, like the actual school itself, was undamaged. But the entire school flooded. But it was designed to flood. So you can, you know, we have property in Houston. The property is designed to flood. Now, there may be cars that are damaged because they're underneath the building, but the building itself. So you can do both. It does cost more potentially to do that. But I think you can do both. But it is, like, you brought up a great point. The challenge is, you know, how do you regulate across, you know, very diverse geographies and do that. So, yeah.

Speaker 1 [58:00] And just because you brought it to the French Rye River Academy, I don't know if anybody's seen the things that they've done postal lean, but it's worth looking up. Uh, I'm a paddler myself, and so I was very, um, you know, in the social media, you know, view of all of that, and, uh, but good on you for sending your kids there. I know Andrew Holcombe. I used to be one of his tenants, but I like you, I like you. You're good. Thanks. Well, that's a good ending point. We're minute over time, but... There you go. Close enough, close enough. Um, we will be back in January. I think it's January 7th, and topic to be determined. But thank you all so much for coming out, and see you guys next month.

Thank you, panelists. Thank you. Hey, guys, Rodrigo here wanted to say thank you for taking the time to listen into this month's panel conversation. We hope that you join us in person at next month's meeting. You can find out more at AVLmeetup.com. We primarily meet on the 1st Tuesday of every month, but be sure to check out our website, AVLmeetup.com. You can also watch this conversation on YouTube at AVLmeetup. Also, I have a quick announcement. We started a property management company called Vesta Property Management. So if you're looking for 3rd party management for long-term rental, we'd love the opportunity to talk to you.

Our goal at Vesta is to turn houses into homes and investments into returns. If you're looking to work with a third-party management company that will allow you to have peace of mind and experience freedom around rentals, reach out to us. can help make that happen for you. That's the PM.com. What's going on, everyone. Zach here to close it out before you sign off for the day. If you liked the data driven portion of today's meetup, then I'd love to take a moment to tell you about the Ruiz Report and REMC.co. If you're a real estate professional, then you know that you should become the local economist of choice, but you're probably unsure of how to learn the skills required.

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Now you have to be an active participating member of the MLS in order to sign up, but it is unparalleled data on every market participant, whether that's an office, a listing, or one of the realtors. Again, you can find out more about REMC.co at REMC.co. As always, thanks for listening, and we hope to see you at one of our next meetups. If you can't make it and you still want to be part of the movers and shakers, then sign up for a free account at AVLmeetup.com and get yourself into our member directory. Thanks again. See you next month.